Polymarket Optimizer

# Polymarket Optimizer — Adaptive Parameter Tuner

🧠 WHAT IT DOES

Reads trading performance from `polymarket-executor`, analyzes what works, and adjusts parameters automatically.

Runs every 6 hours via OpenClaw cron job. Zero manual intervention required.

• Input files (written by executor):
• `performance_metrics.json` — per-strategy win rates, P&L, trade counts
• `paper_trades.json` — all simulated trade records
• `portfolio.json` — capital, positions, daily P&L

• Output files (read by executor at next startup):
• `learned_config.json` — updated thresholds, Kelly fraction, allocations
• `optimizer_log.jsonl` — full history of every optimization run

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⚡ QUICK START

```bash cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer python3 polymarket_optimizer.py ```

Expected output: ``` ============================================================ POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER v1.0.0 Run time: 2026-03-05 14:00:00 UTC ============================================================ [CONFIG] Loaded. Optimization #1 [PORTFOLIO] Health: HEALTHY [PORTFOLIO] Capital: $102.34 | Return: 2.3% [ANALYSIS] parity_arbitrage: EXCELLENT | WR=100.0% | Trades=8 | P&L=+0.523 [ANALYSIS] tail_end: GOOD | WR=75.0% | Trades=12 | P&L=+0.312 [OPTIMIZER] 2 adjustments made: 🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015 📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40% [READINESS] Resolved trades: 8/30 [READINESS] Win rate: 84.6% (need 55%+) [TELEGRAM] Report sent. ============================================================ OPTIMIZER COMPLETE ============================================================ ```

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🔧 WHAT IT ADJUSTS

Strategy Thresholds

| If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor (WR < 50%) | Raise threshold → trade only best opportunities | | Underperforming (WR 50–65%) | Slight threshold increase | | Average (WR 65–80%) | No change | | Good (WR 65–80%, positive P&L) | No change | | Excellent (WR > 80%) | Lower threshold → capture more volume |

Capital Allocation

| If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor | Reduce allocation (min 5–10%) | | Excellent | Increase allocation (max 50–70%) |

Allocations always normalized to sum to 100%.

Kelly Fraction

| Portfolio health | Action | |---|---| | Critical (return < -10%) | Reduce Kelly → smaller positions | | Excellent (return > 10%, WR > 65%) | Increase Kelly → larger positions |

Scan Frequency

| Condition | Action | |---|---| | WR > 80% + 20+ trades | Scan faster (min 120s) | | Portfolio warning/critical | Scan slower (max 600s) |

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📊 LIVE READINESS ASSESSMENT

Every run evaluates whether paper trading results justify going live.

4 criteria must ALL pass:

| Criterion | Threshold | |---|---| | Resolved trades | ≥ 30 | | Win rate | ≥ 55% | | Total P&L | Positive | | Circuit breaker | Not active |

Telegram report includes readiness status automatically.

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📱 TELEGRAM REPORT

``` 🧠 POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER REPORT 🕐 2026-03-05 14:00 UTC 🔄 Optimization #4

Portfolio Health: 🟢 HEALTHY 💰 Capital: $108.45 📈 Return: 8.5% 🎯 Win Rate: 76.9% 📊 Total Trades: 20

Strategy Performance: 🚀 parity_arbitrage: 100.0% WR | 8 trades | P&L: +0.523 ✅ tail_end: 75.0% WR | 12 trades | P&L: +0.312

Adjustments Made: 🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015 📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40% ⚖️ Allocations renormalized

Live Trading Readiness: 🔴 NOT YET READY ❌ Need 30+ resolved trades 📊 Progress: 20/30 trades 🎯 Win rate: 76.9% (need 55%+) ✅ ```

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📁 FILES

| File | Location | Description | |---|---|---| | `polymarket_optimizer.py` | `skills/polymarket-optimizer/` | Main optimizer script | | `learned_config.json` | `WORKSPACE/` | Output — read by executor | | `optimizer_log.jsonl` | `WORKSPACE/` | Full optimization history |

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⏰ CRON JOB

Add to OpenClaw cron configuration:

``` # Run optimizer every 6 hours 0 */6 * * * docker exec openclaw-yyvg-openclaw-1 python3 /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer/polymarket_optimizer.py ```

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Version: 1.0.0 | License: MIT | Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)